In operations and project management, PERT network analysis requires three time estimates for each activity. Which calculation yields the expected time ($T_e$)?
ATe = (o + m + p) / 3
BTe = (o + 4m + p) / 6
CTe = (o + 2m + 2p) / 5
DTe = (4o + m + p) / 6
Explanation
• PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) accounts for task uncertainty using Optimistic ($o$), Most Likely ($m$), and Pessimistic ($p$) durations.
• The expected time formula ($T_e = frac{o + 4m + p}{6}$) places a heavy weight (4x) on the most likely time estimate.
• The variance of a PERT activity duration is calculated using the formula: $sigma^2 = (frac{p – o}{6})^2$.
Exam Relevance
- Topic: Operations Management
- Subtopic: PERT Network Analysis
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